Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 51.5%
Voorspellers
2
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 7 uur geleden
Verouderd22 dec 25, 18:44 UTC31 dec 30, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will Jose Luis Ricon get a https://www.generationlab.com/the-systemage-test blood test (Alina Su's) by 2031
Manifold MarketsWill the finding of high WASF3 in ME/CFS (Hwang,PNAS, 2023) be successfully replicated by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Cochrane retract their Review of Exercise Therapy for ME/CFS or publish an updated review (against GET) by 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill Artificial blood be considered safe and effective for patients in Japan by the end of 2026?
FutuurHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
KalshiRegels
Resolution criteria
- A blood test developed by the University of East Anglia and Oxford BioDynamics achieved 96% accuracy in diagnosing ME/CFS, published in the Journal of Translational Medicine in October 2025.
- This market resolves YES if a larger replication study demonstrates comparable accuracy (≥80% sensitivity and specificity combined, or ≥85% accuracy) in a cohort of at least 200 participants.
- The study must be published in a peer-reviewed journal or preprint server by December 31, 2030.
- Resolution will be based on the reported accuracy metrics in the published study.
- ME/CFS is a debilitating condition affecting millions worldwide, including over 400,000 in the UK.