Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 57.5%
Voorspellers
43
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 8 uur geleden
Verouderd24 sep 25, 16:51 UTC24 sep 27, 16:25 UTC
Trends
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KalshiRegels
Polymarket and Kalshi are currently hotly competing for prediction market dominance, and are about the same size.
- This resolves once that is no longer the case, and one is dramatically more successful than the other.
- [image]I don't want to define a single metric since that can be goodharted, but I'm looking for roughly a 90/10 split or better of general prediction market mindspace and finance-space.
- (Between them only.
- The emergence of a third competitor doesn't factor in.)
- For comparison I would say that Kalshi seems on vibes to be pretty close to beating PredictIt, or possibly has already.