Will JD Vance become President before January 20, 2029?
PolitiekOne-OffAmerikaanse politiekVerkiezing2j
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdWaarschuwing datakwaliteitBrongegevens verslechterd
Gegevens van 26 okt 2026, 07:03 UTC · beleid pm-quality-4
Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 79.7%
Voorspellers
11
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 6 uur geleden
Verouderd18 feb 26, 16:41 UTC19 jan 29, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Regels
This market resolves YES if JD Vance becomes President of the United States at any point between now and January 19, 2029 (before Trump's second term ends).
- CONTEXT: The 22nd Amendment creates an interesting incentive: if Vance becomes president AFTER January 20, 2027 (the midpoint of Trump's term), he could potentially serve up to 10 years total as president (remainder of Trump's term + two full elected terms).
- If he becomes president BEFORE that date, he can only serve one additional elected term.
- RESOLVES YES IF: - Vance assumes the presidency via 25th Amendment (voluntary or involuntary) - Trump resigns and Vance succeeds him - Trump dies and Vance succeeds him - Any other scenario where Vance becomes president before Jan 20, 2029 RESOLVES NO IF: - Trump completes his full second term - Someone other than Vance becomes president before Jan 20, 2029 Resolution date: January 20, 2029 (or earlier if YES)
