Will Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Trump’s Tuesday 8pm ET ultimatum?
PolitiekOne-OffUS PoliticsGeopolitiekMiddle EastManifold MarketsGeslotenGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdDeze markt is beslist: No (99%)
Afgewikkeld: 10 aug 2026, 16:35
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Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 99%
Voorspellers
26
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 10 dagen geleden
Verouderd4 aug 26, 13:4410 aug 26, 16:35
Waarschijnlijkheidstijdlijn
Yes1%
No99%
99%
1%
Regels
Market context: Bloomberg reported that President Trump gave Iran an ultimatum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday at 8:00 p.m.
- The market is not about whether the Bloomberg story is real; it is about whether Iran actually complies with the ultimatum by reopening the strait before the deadline.
- Bloomberg’s reporting framed the demand as reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ensuring freedom of navigation, so the market should resolve only on a clear, reported reopening or formal agreement to reopen.
- Resolution criteria: YES if, by 8:00 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Bloomberg reports that Iran has reopened the Strait of Hormuz or has formally agreed to reopen it in accordance with Trump’s ultimatum.
