Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 73.2%
Voorspellers
13
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 2 uur geleden
Verouderd8 apr 25, 08:24 UTC20 jan 29, 23:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Trump completes full second term through January 20, 2029
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KalshiRegels
I am a H1b, pending my EB2-NIW green card priority date, tech worker, Czech citizen, of no particular notoriety.
- Resolves NO if anytime before Jan 20, 2029 it becomes illegal or unsafe for someone like me living in San Francisco to physically leave USA within a couple hours if they were to decide to do so.
- Resolves YES if through January 20 2029 someone described above would remain able to leave USA expediently.
- Example conditions:
- Exit visa requirement enacted and I / someone similar to me would not automatically pass
- Planes grounded around where I am
Open markten
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt65.7%
- No change-1.0pt32.4%
- 25 bps decrease1%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 11,5 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 1,3 mln.
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party-0.5pt91%
- Republican Party+0.6pt9%
- Totaal volume
- € 32,5 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 982,4K
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- Troy Jackson-6.0pt67%
- Susan Collins+5.0pt33%
- Totaal volume
- € 5,8 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 758,8K
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- Ballroom99%
- Melania99%
- AI / Artificial Intelligence1%
+28 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 627,6K
- 24u volume
- € 598,8K
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. Senate?
- Democratic Party-4.0pt60.4%
- Republican Party+4.0pt39.6%
- Totaal volume
- € 9,2 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 584,8K
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- Democratic party-4.0pt71.7%
- Republican party+2.0pt28.3%
- Totaal volume
- € 1,6 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 445,5K
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will I remain able to leave USA through January 20, 2029??
- Manifold Markets prijst Yes op 73.2% per 25 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will I remain able to leave USA through January 20, 2029? afgewikkeld?
- Will I remain able to leave USA through January 20, 2029? wordt naar verwachting op 20 januari 2029 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will I remain able to leave USA through January 20, 2029? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: I am a H1b, pending my EB2-NIW green card priority date, tech worker, Czech citizen, of no particular notoriety.