Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 56.2%
Voorspellers
3
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 11 uur geleden
Verouderd18 jun 26, 22:58 UTC31 dec 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will the sixth novel in the A Song Of Ice And Fire series be released before the death of George R. R. Martin?
Manifold MarketsWill @AidanFitzzz finally write his great american novel by EOY2031
Manifold Markets"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
PolymarketHighest grossing movie in 2026?
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PolymarketNext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
KalshiRegels
I've been working on an epic historical fantasy novel for several years.
- As of the creation of this market, I have written about 131k words (roughly 580 pages), and I estimate that I am about 90% done, but I think any novelist would tell you that these kinds of estimates are tricky.
- Progress has slowed to a crawl since my second child was born last October, but I am determined to finish it.
- Resolves YES if the final chapter is completed by December 31st, 2026 Otherwise Resolves NO
- Some useful context:
- I have finished four first drafts of previous novels, ranging in length from ~60k to ~120k words.
Open markten
EntertainmentPOLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- 950 - 960m+8.5pt76.5%
- 940 - 950m-11.0pt18.6%
- 960 - 970m-0.1pt2%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 342,8K
- 24u volume
- € 91,2K
KALSHIPrimetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 5099%
- Above 5599%
- Above 60+2.0pt99%
+10 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 182,4K
- 24u volume
- € 90,8K
POLYMARKETNext James Bond actor?
- Jack Lowden+25.1pt47.2%
- No Bond chosen-3.1pt18.9%
- Jack Barton-1.4pt10.4%
+21 extra uitkomsten
KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Jack Lowden+8.0pt46%
- Jack Barton-4.0pt21%
- Callum Turner-6.0pt18%
+27 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 1,8 mln.
KALSHIRunner · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45+15.0pt99%
- Above 50+39.0pt97%
- Above 55+42.0pt84%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 264,6K
KALSHIPractical Magic 2 · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45-53.0pt14%
- Above 50-56.0pt8%
- Above 55-48.0pt2%
+14 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 84,3K
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will I finish the first draft of my novel by the end of the year??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 56% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will I finish the first draft of my novel by the end of the year? afgewikkeld?
- Will I finish the first draft of my novel by the end of the year? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2026 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will I finish the first draft of my novel by the end of the year? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: I've been working on an epic historical fantasy novel for several years.