Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 92.5%
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Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 3 minuten geleden
7 jul 23, 10:03 UTC30 jun 28, 22:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will Donald J. Trump win the Republican Nomination for US President in 2028?
ForecastExWill Donald Trump have been the Republican nominee in every presidential election from 2016 until his death?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2028?
Manifold Markets2028 Republican nominee?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump Jr. win the Republican Nomination for US President in 2028?
ForecastExNH-01 Republican nominee?
KalshiRegels
Most other (manifold) markets have converged on a ~25% probability (as of July 7th 2023) of Donald Trump winning the 2024 United States presidential election.
- Given this, what is the likelihood that Donald Trump will seek and win the Republican nomination in 2028?
- This market will resolve YES if Donald Trump is the 2028 Republican presidential nominee.
- This market will resolve NO if Donald Trump is still alive and is not the 2028 nominee.
- If Donald Trump dies before the relevant date, this market will resolve N/A. I am open to arguments about changing the N/A criteria such that his death will make this market resolve NO.
Open markten
Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 606,3 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 721K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+1.0pt20%
- Tucker Carlson+0.1pt3%
+39 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-1.0pt55.5%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+2.5pt42.6%
- Renan Santos-0.1pt1%
+16 extra uitkomsten
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff16.5%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez15.5%
- Gavin Newsom13.6%
+45 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 183,4 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 411,2K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+4.0pt73%
- New People (NL)-2.5pt23%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.5pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen-1.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+1.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 extra uitkomsten
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Putin out as President of Russia by which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee in 2028??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 93% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee in 2028? afgewikkeld?
- Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee in 2028? wordt naar verwachting op 30 juni 2028 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee in 2028? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Most other (manifold) markets have converged on a ~25% probability (as of July 7th 2023) of Donald Trump winning the 2024 United States presidential election.