Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensGoed gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 96.7%
Voorspellers
30
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 7 uur geleden
Verouderd7 jul 23, 10:03 UTC30 jun 28, 22:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will Donald J. Trump win the Republican Nomination for US President in 2028?
ForecastExWill the Republican presidential candidate endorsed by Trump win the 2028 Republican primaries?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump have been the Republican nominee in every presidential election from 2016 until his death?
Manifold Markets2028 Republican nominee?
Manifold MarketsLA-01 Republican nominee?
KalshiRegels
Most other (manifold) markets have converged on a ~25% probability (as of July 7th 2023) of Donald Trump winning the 2024 United States presidential election.
- Given this, what is the likelihood that Donald Trump will seek and win the Republican nomination in 2028?
- This market will resolve YES if Donald Trump is the 2028 Republican presidential nominee.
- This market will resolve NO if Donald Trump is still alive and is not the 2028 nominee.
- If Donald Trump dies before the relevant date, this market will resolve N/A. I am open to arguments about changing the N/A criteria such that his death will make this market resolve NO.
