Will Daniel Ortega lose power in 2026?
One-OffPolitiekAmerikaanse politiekVerkiezingGeopolitiekLatijns-AmerikaMisdaad en justitie2mndManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 90%
Voorspellers
8
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 49 minuten geleden
Vertraagd21 jul 26, 17:26 UTC31 dec 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRegels
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, at any point on or before December 31, 2026 (11:59 PM UTC), Daniel Ortega ceases to be the President (or Co-President/head of state) of Nicaragua, or otherwise definitively loses de facto power.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
- To resolve to YES, one of the following events must occur and be confirmed by credible international media outlets (such as Reuters, the Associated Press, or BBC) on or before the December 31, 2026 deadline:
- Official Removal or Resignation: Daniel Ortega officially resigns, is removed, or is otherwise replaced as President/head of state.
- Death or Permanent Incapacitation: Daniel Ortega is officially declared deceased or permanently incapacitated, resulting in a successor (such as Co-President Rosario Murillo) officially assuming the presidency.
