Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 78.8%
Voorspellers
30
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 15 minuten geleden
28 jul 26, 00:12 UTC30 nov 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Where will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season?
PolymarketWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
PolymarketWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
PolymarketWill a hurricane make landfall in a US state (Pacific)?
Manifold MarketsWill 2 or more hurricanes make landfall in the US in 2026?
PolymarketWill a Category 3 hurricane make landfall in Tampa before 2027?
KalshiRegels
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if at least one major hurricane makes landfall in the United States or its territories during the 2026 calendar year (January 1, 2026, through December 31, 2026).
- Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
- Major Hurricane: Defined as a Category 3, 4, or 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (maximum sustained surface winds of 111 mph / 96 knots or greater) at the time of landfall.
- Landfall: Defined by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) as the intersection of the surface center of a tropical cyclone with a coastline.
- A storm whose strongest winds or eyewall affect land but whose surface center remains entirely offshore does not constitute a landfall.