Will at least 80 percent of solar modules deployed in the US in 2026 be manufactured in the US?
WeerOne-OffHandelsbeleidMacro en economieRegelgeving11mnd
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensGoed gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 88.2%
Voorspellers
74
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 41 minuten geleden
11 aug 24, 03:53 UTC1 okt 27, 03:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will any manufacturer ship 1 GW or more of perovskite solar modules in a single calendar year by December 31, 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill any manufacturer ship 1 GW or more of perovskite solar modules in a single calendar year by December 31, 2030?
Manifold MarketsMilitary/National Guard deployed to a US university campus in response to protests before January 2027
Manifold MarketsWill solar geoengineering techniques be deployed at any significant scale by 2030? [details in description]
Manifold MarketsWill more than 20% of all transoceanic freight/shipping be routed through the Arctic before 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill the Global Methane Pledge be met?
Manifold MarketsRegels
Jigar Shah, director of the DOE Loan Programs Office in the US, claimed on August 8, 2024 that "we expect to produce 80% of the modules we use in this country by 2026."
- https://x.com/JigarShahDC/status/1821539692614918542
- This market will resolve "true" if in the Annual Solar Photovoltaic Module Shipments Report for 2026, published in August/September 2027, the peak kilowatt total of solar modules manufactured in the US is at least 80 percent of the peak kilowatt total of modules either imported to the US or manufactured in the US and sold domestically.
- It will resolve "false" if US manufacturing falls short of US purchases for the year 2026.
- https://www.eia.gov/renewable/annual/solar_photo/
- Note that "true" resolution requires only that US manufacturing be sufficient to meet 80 percent of US demand, not that that actually be where 80 percent of US-deployed modules comes from.
