Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 74.9%
Voorspellers
19
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 14 uur geleden
Verouderd23 apr 26, 08:16 UTC31 dec 28, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Which cities will Waymo launch in by December 31?
PolymarketChina ballistic missile launch by December 31?
PolymarketRocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31?
PolymarketWhich company has the best AI model end of November?
PolymarketWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketHow many launches will SpaceX have in October?
KalshiRegels
Artemis IV is planned to be NASA's first crewed lunar landing since Apollo 17 in 1972, sending four astronauts to lunar orbit aboard an SLS/Orion stack, with two crew descending to the lunar South Pole via a commercial Human Landing System (SpaceX Starship HLS or Blue Origin Blue Moon).
- NASA is officially targeting early 2028 for launch.
- Artemis II (crewed lunar flyby) successfully flew April 1–11, 2026.
- Artemis III (HLS test in Earth orbit) is targeted for mid-2027 and must fly first.
- Both HLS landers (Starship HLS, Blue Moon) still need to complete human-rating certification.
- Resolves YES if the Artemis IV SLS/Orion stack lifts off from the pad (T-0, engine ignition and liftoff) on or before 23:59 UTC on December 31, 2028, regardless of mission success afterward.