Will any US Senate candidate lead the polling average by 5% or more and lose?
PolitiekOne-OffAmerikaanse politiekVerkiezing1mnd
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 79.5%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Bijgewerkt 11 minuten geleden
8 okt 26, 08:15 UTC30 nov 26, 23:59 UTC
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ForecastExRegels
https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2026-midterm-election-polls-model
- Resolves YES if in any 2026 US Senate election on the Silver Bulletin average, a candidate leads the final polling average for their race by 5.00% or more and loses.
- The final polling average on silver bulletin will be used.
