Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
Nee 81.4%
Voorspellers
44
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 23 uur geleden
Verouderd23 sep 24, 16:56 UTC1 jan 28, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will Apple stock (AAPL) hit $500 before $50?
Manifold MarketsNVDA stock price exceeds AAPL stock price before January 1, 2027
Manifold MarketsWill the 2027 CoolFold Financial Portfolio outperform Nvidia / NVDA over the next year?
Manifold MarketsWill Greece's GDP per capita (Nominal) surpass it's peak value in 2008 by the end of the decade?
Manifold MarketsWill Amazon (AMZN) beat quarterly earnings?
PolymarketWill Microsoft (MSFT) beat quarterly earnings?
PolymarketRegels
Is there an AI bubble, and if so how big is it? Let's find out using the actual stock market.
- Resolves YES if and only if any 4 of the mentioned stocks (AAPL, AMZN, ASML, GOOG, META, MSFT, NVDA, and TSM) trade at 40% or less of their split-adjusted historical peak between now and Dec 31, 2027, inclusive.
- For example, if ASML goes up to a new peak of $1200 and then falls back down to $480 a share, then ASML will count as one the 4 stocks.
- The 4 stocks need not all be below 40% at the same time.
- If any of the stocks are renamed, the market will continue track the price of the stock under its new name.
- If any are acquired by another publicly traded company, the market will track the proportion of that other company's stock which the original stock represents.
