Will a dust storm pick up material from the Great Salt Lake and cause significant health concerns by 2030?
WeerOne-Off3jManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 62%
Voorspellers
11
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 7 uur geleden
Verouderd19 mrt 23, 01:06 UTC2 jan 30, 07:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will the Great Salt Lake be below 4,188ft at the beginning of 2030
Manifold MarketsWill Salt Lake City get a Major League Baseball team before 2030?
Manifold MarketsLowest Great Salt Lake elevation in 2026?
PolymarketWill the Great Salt Lake dry up by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be the primary cause of a significant global catastrophe by 2030?
Manifold MarketsAustin FC vs. Real Salt Lake
PolymarketRegels
This market is intended to predict whether or not the drying of the Great Salt Lake will both continue to occur and have significant negative effects to human health in the surroundings region (on a medium term timescale).
- It is very likely the dust storm would need to meet the following requirements for me to resolve this as Yes:
- Contains a large amount of (presumably poisonous, likely arsenic laden) material from the Great Salt Lake lake bed
- Is expected to cause specifically attributable negative health affects (over the victims lifetime) to greater than 500 people and/or required more than $10,000,000 to mitigate the negative effects of (possibly through economic losses of Shelter In Place or Evacuation orders)
- Recieved reporting by a major news outlet (respected news outlets in the SLC region count).
- Please feel free to ask questions about how I would resolve this in various cases in the comments.
