Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will a president of the USA die while in office before the end of 2050?

Manifold Markets prijst Yes op 58.5% per 29 oktober 2026.

Will a president of the USA die while in office before the end of 2050

Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensGoed gekalibreerd

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Ja 58.5%

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Play-money forecasting platform

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Bijgewerkt 12 uur geleden

Verouderd

24 jun 24, 17:44 UTC31 dec 50, 22:59 UTC

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Historical data shows that eight U.S. Presidents have died in office, with the last occurrence in 1963.

But will there be more before the end of 2050? It doesn't matter how he or she dies, only if she does.
So natural death and things like assassinations count.
The question will resolve YES if a president of the USA actually dies while serving a term before the end of 2050 and it resolves NO if it doesn't happen by then.