Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 83.3%
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Bijgewerkt 4 uur geleden
Verouderd4 jul 25, 14:35 UTC30 nov 26, 23:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will control of the House and Senate be called by midnight (PT) on election night in the 2026 US Midterms?
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ForecastExWill average air fares exceed $385 in Q2 2026 in the US?
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ForecastExPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketRegels
Will turnout in the 2026 midterm exceed that of the 2022 midterm?
- Turnout calculated as total voter turnout as percent of citizen voting age population (CVAP).
- The official source will be the 2026 Election Administration and Voting Survey from the Election Assistance Commission.
- In 2022, turnout was 46.8% (112,054,124 voters out of 239,035,960 CVAP).
- The report is not expected until late June; if a consensus of credible reporting is available sooner, and this market is priced stably, it may resolve early.
- If things are close or unclear, we may have to wait for the report.
Open markten
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 605,7 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 697,7K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 603,2 mln.
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 183,4 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 471,3K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 extra uitkomsten
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will 2026 turnout exceed 2022? (US midterms, percentage)?
- Manifold Markets prijst Yes op 83% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will 2026 turnout exceed 2022? (US midterms, percentage) afgewikkeld?
- Will 2026 turnout exceed 2022? (US midterms, percentage) wordt naar verwachting op 30 november 2026 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will 2026 turnout exceed 2022? (US midterms, percentage) afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Will turnout in the 2026 midterm exceed that of the 2022 midterm?