Who will be major candidates in the 2028 Democratic primaries?
PolitiekOne-OffAmerikaanse politiekVerkiezing1j
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingGavin Newsom 86.8%Koploper van 18 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
29
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 9 uur geleden
Verouderd9 mrt 25, 04:26 UTC2 jun 28, 04:59 UTC
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For the purposes of this market, a "major candidate" is defined as any candidate who, at any point during the race, had a polling average of at least 10%.
- In previous years, according to realclearpolling.com, the candidates who would have met this criteria were:
- 2024: Joe Biden, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 2020: Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Mike Bloomberg, the named outcome, the named outcome
- 2016: Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders
- 2012: [no data, presumably because Obama was virtually uncontested]