Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdWaarschuwing datakwaliteitBrongegevens verslechterd
Gegevens van 25 okt 2026, 18:35 UTC · beleid pm-quality-4
Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingMoonbase 51.3%
Voorspellers
16
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 14 uur geleden
Verouderd25 mrt 26, 05:07 UTC25 mrt 36, 05:02 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Which is first: Crewed Starships to Mars, or California high speed rail?
Manifold MarketsWill California high-speed rail use Siemens trains?
Manifold Markets🚅 Will the California High Speed Rail Initial Operating Segment open by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?
KalshiWill California start laying high-speed rail track in 2026?
KalshiWill there be a high-speed rail between LA and SF by the end of 2040?
Manifold MarketsRegels
Moonbase: a single pressurized volume on the Moon with at least six occupants for a contiguous Earth year.
- the named outcome: At least one human must travel, successfully, from SF to LA (or the reverse).
- Tracks must be capable of at least 90mph for SF-Gilroy and Burbank-Anaheim, and at least 155 mph for the remaining pieces, with the majority of the travel distance exceeding those minimums.
- (Current plans have speeds below what would normally qualify as HSR for those sections.
- And obviously the train will slow down for intermediate stops.)
- Related: @/EvanDaniel/which-is-first-crewed-starships-to
