Manifold MarketsGeslotenGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdNiet-geverifieerde afwikkelingsdata: Below 4.6 million km²
Afgewikkeld: 1 okt 2026, 17:48
Deze uitkomst is afgeleid of wordt niet ondersteund door provider-grade afwikkelingsbewijs.
Waarschuwing datakwaliteitVerouderde gegevens
Gegevens van 2 okt 2026, 00:10 UTC · beleid pm-quality-4
Waarschijnlijkheidstijdlijn
Below 4.6 million km²100%
Below 4.5 million km²0%
Below 4.4 million km²0%
Below 4.3 million km²0%
Below 4.2 million km²0%
Below 4.0 million km²0%
Below 3.8 million km²0%
Resultaat in afwachting
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Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Antarctic sea ice minimum to decrease in 2027?
FutuurArctic sea ice minimum to decrease in 2027?
Futuur(M5000 subsidy) Will the Arctic sea ice fully melt before the year 2050?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the Antarctic sea ice extent fall below 1 million square kilometers for the first time?
Manifold MarketsWill the Antarctic sea ice extent reach at least 25 million square kilometers at least once this century?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the Antarctic sea ice reach nearly zero before 2100?
Manifold MarketsRegels
Each answer resolves independently.
- An answer resolves YES if the National Snow and Ice Data Center records at least one qualifying daily Arctic sea-ice extent strictly below that answer's threshold.
- Otherwise it resolves NO.
- The measurement is the lowest individual daily Extent value in the NSIDC Sea Ice Index Version 4 Northern Hemisphere daily CSV for dates from December 19, 2025 through October 1, 2026, measured in millions of square kilometers.
- A value exactly equal to a threshold does not count as below it.
- Use the data available at 10:00 AM ET on October 7, 2026; later revisions are ignored.
