Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingBefore 2027-06-01 92.3%+1.4ptKoploper van 38 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
73
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
+1.4 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 13 minuten geleden
15 mrt 24, 14:03 UTC1 jan 28, 22:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will SpaceX be the customer for more than half of orbital payload mass in 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhen will SpaceX's Starship launch from Florida?
KalshiWhen will Starship launch from Florida for the first time?
Manifold MarketsWill Starship launch one hundred times by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
LimitlessRegels
The market will resolve positively when SpaceX Starship rocket first launches any commercial or scientific payload into orbit.
- It could be a Starlink satellite, a commercial satellite from another company, or a scientific satellite even if it is launched pro bono.
- Mass simulator or meme payloads like Elon's car do not count.
- The payload should be deployed into the desired initial orbit (or an orbit close enough that it could be corrected by the satellite itself).
- The market will resolve even if the satellite itself malfunctions after the deployment.
- I do not bet on my own questions.
Open markten
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt88%
- OpenAI-1.7pt10%
- Google2%
+18 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 2,2 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 85,3K
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- Yes59.4%
- No40.6%
- Totaal volume
- € 153,6K
- 24u volume
- € 39,2K
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+3.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETSpaceX Starship Flight Test 14
- October 3197%
- Successful splash down?84%
- September 30-5.3pt83%
+8 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 409,9K
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+1.3pt59.8%
- SpaceX-4.5pt38.1%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-1.0pt84%
- Above 9-27.0pt46%
- Above 10-8.0pt23%
+8 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- Next Grok Model (4.7+) released on?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- AI data center in space by which date?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor When will Starship first launch with useful payload??
- Manifold Markets prijst Before 2027-06-01 op 92% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt When will Starship first launch with useful payload? afgewikkeld?
- When will Starship first launch with useful payload? wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2028 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt When will Starship first launch with useful payload? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: The market will resolve positively when SpaceX Starship rocket first launches any commercial or scientific payload into orbit.