Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
Not by 2030 60.6%Koploper van 7 uitkomsten
Not by 2030 60.6%Voorspellers
13
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
+0.6 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 18 uur geleden
Verouderd5 jan 25, 08:35 UTC1 jan 31, 12:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Wins Nobel Prize in Literature before 2030
Manifold MarketsWill Alan Moore ever win the Nobel Prize for Literature?
Manifold MarketsWill Haruki Murakami ever win the Nobel Prize for Literature?
Manifold MarketsWill an LLM have been used as part of the composition a work which wins the Nobel Prize in Literature by 2040?
Manifold MarketsNational Book Award for Translated Literature
KalshiNational Book Award for Young People's Literature
KalshiRegels
Mircea Cărtărescu is a renowned Romanian novelist, poet, and essayist who has been consistently mentioned as a top contender for the Nobel Prize in Literature.
- He was among the favorites for the 2024 prize and continues to be considered a strong candidate for future awards.
- Resolution Criteria
- This market will resolve to the year in which Mircea Cărtărescu wins the Nobel Prize in Literature.
- If he wins the prize in any year from 2025 through 2030, the corresponding year option will resolve as YES, with all other options resolving as NO.
- If he does not win the prize by the end of 2030, "the named outcome" will resolve as YES, with all other options resolving as NO.
