Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingBefore 2050 56.7%Koploper van 11 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
4
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 15 uur geleden
Verouderd16 sep 25, 17:22 UTC2 jan 27, 18:06 UTC
Trends
Regels
When I refer to a "multiple-choice market", I mean one where the probability of all choices always add up to 100%.
- This also includes at least some forms of date and numeric markets.
- Right now, all mana invested in this type of market remains tied up until the winning choice has been selected.
- It would be far more optimal for prediction accuracy and mana management if guaranteed-wrong options could be resolved NO as they become guaranteed-wrong.
- A "PR" refers to a GitHub Pull Request, and it is the mechanism by which code changes to manifold are currently proposed.
- This market will resolve based on whether/when I submit an as-described change to Manifold, regardless of whether it's accepted or whether the exact mechanism is a GitHub PR.
