Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling2035 or earlier 71.8%Koploper van 6 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
12
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 14 uur geleden
Verouderd8 mrt 24, 03:55 UTC1 jan 35, 12:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
When will a Starship booster first land and relaunch without being removed from the launch tower?
Manifold MarketsWhich will happen first: AGI, or a pile of sand at my local park being removed?
Manifold MarketsAI Warning Signs: Before 2030, will an AI system scam someone without being given explicit instructions to do so?
Manifold MarketsWill there be commonly sold shirataki noodles sold *without being wrapped in plastic* by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsBitcoin price at the end of 2026
KalshiWhere will it rain on Oct 27, 2026?
KalshiRegels
Resolves YES once an individual Starship second stage launches as part of a full stack launch, lands/is caught, and then launches again from the same launch tower/pad it landed at - without being removed from that tower in between the landing and relaunch
- Answers resolve NO once date is passed (or may resolve NO early if sufficiently certain)
- The booster can be picked up by the chopsticks (or equivalent), but if it is placed down on anything other than the booster or launch mount (or equivalent) it is counted as having been removed
- Work done on the vehicle while it's on the launch mount (or equivalent) does not invalidate it
- The launches themselves don't need to be successful
- Starship does not need to be its exact name but it must be the second stage of a vehicle referred to in some sense as Starship and must have extensive shared heritage with the current SpaceX vehicle
