Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling> 1 month 99%Koploper van 10 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
27
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 6 uur geleden
Verouderd13 mei 26, 23:42 UTC13 sep 30, 23:42 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will Keir Starmer's successor have a longer tenure as prime minister than Keir?
Manifold MarketsWill Keir Starmer be UK Prime Minister at the end of 2031?
Manifold MarketsWill Keir Starmer be UK Prime Minister at the end of 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill Keir Starmer be UK Prime Minister at the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsAndy Burnham out as UK's Prime Minister by which date?
FutuurHow many UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?
PolymarketRegels
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves based on the duration of the next UK Prime Minister's continuous tenure after Keir Starmer, starting from the date they are officially sworn into office.
- The duration will be measured by the time elapsed between their appointment and the date they officially leave office (the day their successor is appointed or they formally resign/are removed).
- Resolution will be determined using the official records from gov.uk and major credible news outlets such as the BBC or Reuters.
- Each answer option corresponds to the PM remaining in office for a duration strictly greater than the specified time.
- If multiple options are met (e.g., if a PM stays for 2 years, the "> 1 month," "> 6 months," and "> 1 year" options will all resolve YES), this market allows for independent resolution of each answer.
