Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling> 1 month 99%Koploper van 10 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
27
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 10 uur geleden
Verouderd13 mei 26, 23:42 UTC13 sep 30, 23:42 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will Keir Starmer's successor have a longer tenure as prime minister than Keir?
Manifold MarketsWill Keir Starmer be UK Prime Minister at the end of 2031?
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PolymarketRegels
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves based on the duration of the next UK Prime Minister's continuous tenure after Keir Starmer, starting from the date they are officially sworn into office.
- The duration will be measured by the time elapsed between their appointment and the date they officially leave office (the day their successor is appointed or they formally resign/are removed).
- Resolution will be determined using the official records from gov.uk and major credible news outlets such as the BBC or Reuters.
- Each answer option corresponds to the PM remaining in office for a duration strictly greater than the specified time.
- If multiple options are met (e.g., if a PM stays for 2 years, the "> 1 month," "> 6 months," and "> 1 year" options will all resolve YES), this market allows for independent resolution of each answer.
Open markten
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KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16.2%
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KALSHINew Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
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- Jared Sullivan-0.2pt0%
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- Totaal volume
- Next French Presidential Election
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- Which party will win the U.S. House?
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- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
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- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Next UK prime minister tenure? (After Keir Starmer)?
- Manifold Markets prijst > 1 month op 99% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Next UK prime minister tenure? (After Keir Starmer) afgewikkeld?
- Next UK prime minister tenure? (After Keir Starmer) wordt naar verwachting op 13 september 2030 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Next UK prime minister tenure? (After Keir Starmer) afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolution criteria