Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling2029 23.4%Koploper van 10 uitkomsten
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Verouderd17 nov 23, 22:04 UTC1 jan 34, 05:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
What is the first year in which a rider other than Tadej Pogacar or Jonas Vingegaard wins the Tour de France?
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KalshiRegels
Resolves Yes to the first calendar year where Tadej Pogacar does not start the first stage (or prologue) of the Tour de France.
- If he appears on the startlist but does not actually start the stage, that is probably a DNS.
- If he appears on the startlist, starts the first stage, and quits before it is over, that is probably NOT a DNS.
- If the Tour de France is not held in any season, I am going to N/A this question because that is simply not what I am interested in.
- I don't want anyone to need to calculate "The TDF stops existing" into their valuations.
- So just assume the TDF happens every year.