What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2026 midterms?
4.6 ptn (24u)One-OffPolitiekAmerikaanse politiekVerkiezingAmerikaanse tussentijdse verkiezingen 202610d
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdWaarschuwing datakwaliteitBrongegevens verslechterd
Gegevens van 24 okt 2026, 01:13 UTC · beleid pm-quality-4
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Democratic House and Senate 66.3%+4.6ptKoploper van 5 uitkomsten
Democratic House and Senate 66.3%+4.6ptVoorspellers
110
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
+4.2 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 14 uur geleden
Verouderd15 nov 24, 22:37 UTC4 nov 26, 05:59 UTC
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KalshiBalance of power after the 2028 elections
Manifold MarketsRegels
Resolves to whichever party's caucuses are elected to majorities in the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate in the 2026 midterm elections.
- A majority in the House is defined as having more than half of the voting Representatives, and a majority in the Senate is defined as having more than half of the Senators, or exactly half and the vice president.
- Independents or members of third parties who caucus with another party are considered part of that party for the sake of determining the majority.
- Following the 2024 election, there are two such independents remaining in the Senate, both of whom caucus with the Democrats.
- Independents or third party members who do not caucus with either major party will not be considered a part of either party - thus it is in theory possible that neither party could have the majority in one of the chambers.
- In that case, the market will resolve to "Other" or an option stating that no party has the majority in the chamber if such an option has been added.
