US cabinet member exposed as Russian agent by 2040?
PolitiekOne-OffAmerikaanse politiekRusland / Oekraïne13j
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 78.7%
Voorspellers
14
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 9 uur geleden
Verouderd26 nov 25, 14:37 UTC31 dec 39, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Regels
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that at least one U.S. cabinet‑level official is or was acting as an undisclosed agent of the Russian government, and that this fact is credibly established before January 1st 2040.
- For the purposes of this market:
- “U.S. cabinet‑level official” means a person serving as:
- A Senate‑confirmed head of an executive department (e.g., Secretary of State, Defense, Army, etc.), or
- Any other official formally granted cabinet rank by the President at the time of the relevant conduct.
- “Strong evidence” requires at least one of the following:
