Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
Nee 84%
Voorspellers
458
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 1 uur geleden
Vertraagd31 mrt 25, 14:57 UTC30 nov 28, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will Trump be allowed to run for a 3rd term?
KalshiWill Trump's attempt to run for the 3rd term be blocked by court(s)?
Manifold MarketsDonald Trump attempts to withdraw from NATO
Manifold MarketsWill Lula's 3rd term in Brazil have above-average (>75%) congressional support?
Manifold MarketsWill the US officially declare war on Iran by which date?
PolymarketWhich countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?
PolymarketRegels
This market resolves YES if Donald Trump makes a serious effort to run for office.
- This means he takes legal steps towards running for office like filing with the FEC or he goes to court to argue that he should be allowed to run again.
- It is not necessary for this market that he actually succeeds in getting on the ballot.
- A serious attempt to get in is enough.
- However, If he got on the ballot anywhere this market would certainly resolve YES.
- If Trump dies before he made an effort but still could the market resolves N/A. Backing out due to health reasons will otherwise resolve as NO.
Open markten
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 605,7 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 695,7K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 603,2 mln.
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.4pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+9.8pt96%
- $25M+15.5pt94%
- $50M+31.5pt86%
+4 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party84.2%
- Republican Party15.8%
- Totaal volume
- € 24,3 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 294,7K
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.7%
- Marco Rubio20.4%
- Ron DeSantis3.9%
+35 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 54,7 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 291,3K
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Trump renames New Mexico to New America by which date?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Trump seriously attempts 3rd term in 2028??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 84% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Trump seriously attempts 3rd term in 2028? afgewikkeld?
- Trump seriously attempts 3rd term in 2028? wordt naar verwachting op 30 november 2028 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Trump seriously attempts 3rd term in 2028? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: This market resolves YES if Donald Trump makes a serious effort to run for office.