Trump seriously attempts 3rd term in 2028?
One-OffAmerikaanse politiekPolitiekGeopolitiekVerkiezing2jManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdWaarschuwing datakwaliteitBrongegevens verslechterd
Gegevens van 26 okt 2026, 07:45 UTC · beleid pm-quality-4
Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 83.5%
Voorspellers
466
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 5 minuten geleden
31 mrt 25, 14:57 UTC30 nov 28, 23:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will Trump be allowed to run for a 3rd term?
KalshiWill Trump's attempt to run for the 3rd term be blocked by court(s)?
Manifold MarketsWill Lula's 3rd term in Brazil have above-average (>75%) congressional support?
Manifold MarketsTrump announces Canada tariff increase by which date?
PolymarketWhat will happen during Trump's second term?
Manifold MarketsMidterms: which issue matters most to voters?
KalshiRegels
This market resolves YES if Donald Trump makes a serious effort to run for office.
- This means he takes legal steps towards running for office like filing with the FEC or he goes to court to argue that he should be allowed to run again.
- It is not necessary for this market that he actually succeeds in getting on the ballot.
- A serious attempt to get in is enough.
- However, If he got on the ballot anywhere this market would certainly resolve YES.
- If Trump dies before he made an effort but still could the market resolves N/A. Backing out due to health reasons will otherwise resolve as NO.