Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 66.8%
Voorspellers
10
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 9 uur geleden
Verouderd6 jan 26, 00:52 UTC1 jan 27, 07:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by December 31?
PolymarketUS Govt Sanctions Keir Starmer chief of staff?
Manifold MarketsWill Seattle Seahawks visit the White House in 2026?
PolymarketWill the 2026 Pro Football champs visit the White House?
KalshiWho will visit the White House in 2026?
KalshiWho will attend a White House Press Briefing in 2026?
KalshiRegels
Part of Matt Yglesias' "Predictions for 2026" from his Slow Boring newsletter.
- Source: [Predictions for 2026](https://www.slowboring.com/i/181456375/predictions-for) Yglesias assigned 80% probability to this prediction.
- Original prediction: "Susie Wiles departs as White House chief of staff" Resolution: Will resolve based on Yglesias' own assessment in his January 2027 review post.
- If he doesn't publish one, market creator will resolve based on the outcome.
Open markten
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 605,6 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 693K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 603,1 mln.
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+1.4pt96%
- $25M+2.0pt94%
- $50M+5.0pt90%
+4 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 extra uitkomsten
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.1%
- Marco Rubio20.6%
- Ron DeSantis4.9%
+35 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 54,7 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 266,9K
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Totaal volume
- € 12,5 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 248,7K
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- NJ-07 House winner?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
- IA-01 House winner?
- Which states will redistrict before the midterms?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Susie Wiles departs as White House chief of staff in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 67% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Susie Wiles departs as White House chief of staff in 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Susie Wiles departs as White House chief of staff in 2026? wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2027 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Susie Wiles departs as White House chief of staff in 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Part of Matt Yglesias' "Predictions for 2026" from his Slow Boring newsletter.