Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 75.9%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Bijgewerkt 7 minuten geleden
17 okt 23, 18:41 UTC2 jan 39, 07:59 UTC
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PolymarketRegels
This question resolves true if, looking back in 15 years, it's obviously the case that:
- "In 2023, the marginal smart, ethical person should have gone into AI rather than climate"
- This question resolves false if it's obviously the case that:
- "In 2023, the marginal smart, ethical person should have gone into climate rather than AI"
- Resolves n/a otherwise.
- I'll assume that in either field the person would work on the top 5% of most effective interventions, as judged post-hoc, and that we're only evaluating impact (not salary, personal fit, other idiosyncratic factors).