Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
Nee 62%
Voorspellers
73
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 6 uur geleden
Verouderd2 mrt 24, 19:31 UTC2 jan 39, 07:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Real-time whole human brain emulation runs before end of 2038 (not necessarily an 'upload' of a specific human).
Manifold MarketsWill cryonics or brain-emulation research get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a human brain (mind) be successfully uploaded into a computer before 2045?
Manifold MarketsNext Prime Minister of Romania?
PolymarketPrime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election?
KalshiWill the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?
PolymarketRegels
This must be an accurate simulation of a whole human brain run on a non-neuronal substrate with at least real-time subject experience (1-1 or better emulation-time to clock-time).
- This would probably be silicon-chip-based substrate, perhaps GPU/CPU or analogue neuromorphic chips.
- Would need confirmation of high degree of fidelity of neural behavior to human neurons, and high degree of fidelity of neuronal population dynamics.
- Does not need to emulation physical behavior below neuron level resolution (e.g. protein complexes like ion channels, or movement of ions).
- Does not need to be a faithful replica of a specific human, just within behavioral distribution of neuronal dynamics observed in the general human population.
- This requires improvements in measuring neuronal population dynamics in the human population (e.g. by improved brain-computer-interface observations).
Open markten
SportsKALSHISabalenka vs Noskova
- Aryna Sabalenka+6.0pt74.5%
- Linda Noskova-5.0pt25.5%
- Totaal volume
- € 12,2 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 11,2 mln.
POLYMARKETCounter-Strike: G2 vs Astralis (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group A
- 2 Winner+33.0pt100%
- O/U 2.5 Games+57.0pt100%
- 1 Rounds Handicap: Astralis (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5)100%
+29 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETUEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
- Barcelona18.1%
- Arsenal15.2%
- Paris Saint-Germain13.3%
+33 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 24 mln.
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Aryna Sabalenka vs Linda Noskova Quarter Finals match
- Aryna Sabalenka72.6%
- Linda Noskova27.4%
- Totaal volume
- € 15,6K
- 24u volume
- € 1,9 mln.
KALSHIUS Open Men's Singles Winner
- Carlos Alcaraz57%
- Alexander Zverev+5.0pt26%
- Ben Shelton9%
+45 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 24,1 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 1,9 mln.
KALSHIClub Brugge vs Aston Villa
- Aston Villa+49.0pt87.1%
- Tie-17.0pt9.9%
- Club Brugge-31.0pt3%
- Totaal volume
- € 2,1 mln.
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Villarreal CF
- US Open WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Linda Noskova
- Tiafoe vs Michelsen
- Genoa: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Francesco Ferrari
- United Arab Emirates vs Bangladesh
- 2027 Pro Football Champion
- MLB: Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers (Sep 7, 2026)
- MLB: New York Mets vs Miami Marlins (Sep 7, 2026)
- Amgen Irish Open Winner
- MLB: Arizona Diamondbacks vs Kansas City Royals (Sep 7, 2026)
- Real Madrid vs Inter
- US Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Real-time whole human brain emulation runs before end of 2038 (not necessarily an 'upload' of a specific human).?
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 62% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Real-time whole human brain emulation runs before end of 2038 (not necessarily an 'upload' of a specific human). afgewikkeld?
- Real-time whole human brain emulation runs before end of 2038 (not necessarily an 'upload' of a specific human). wordt naar verwachting op 2 januari 2039 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Real-time whole human brain emulation runs before end of 2038 (not necessarily an 'upload' of a specific human). afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: This must be an accurate simulation of a whole human brain run on a non-neuronal substrate with at least real-time subject experience (1-1 or better emulation-time to clock-time).