Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 88.1%
Voorspellers
19
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 12 uur geleden
Verouderd22 jun 25, 15:26 UTC22 jun 29, 22:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will a dirty bomb be used by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a dirty bomb be used in an attack before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a credible threat of a dirty bomb being detonated by 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill an implantable device to treat tinnitus be available anywhere in the world before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran develop a nuclear bomb by the end of 2026?
FutuurPrime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election?
KalshiRegels
A "dirty bomb" is a dispersal mechanism like a conventional explosive attached to a radioactive material, intended to render an affected area undesirable, impassible, or uninhabitable.
- Nuclear explosions (those relying on nuclear fission or fusion for their energy) do not count.
- Intended nuclear devices that malfunction do not count, even if they have the same effect as a dirty bomb.
- This question resolves NO in four years if no dirty bomb detonates anywhere in the world.
- This question resolves YES based on the report of a newspaper AND a reputable scientific organization.
- I do not expect that to be a subjective criterion, but if it appears that subjective resolution is required I will sell any shares at current market value a full day before resolving this market.
