Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 88.1%
Voorspellers
19
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 2 uur geleden
Verouderd22 jun 25, 15:26 UTC22 jun 29, 22:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will an implantable device to treat tinnitus be available anywhere in the world before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump bomb Oman?
Manifold Marketswill a nuclear bomb be thrown in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran develop a nuclear bomb by the end of 2026?
FutuurIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketRegels
A "dirty bomb" is a dispersal mechanism like a conventional explosive attached to a radioactive material, intended to render an affected area undesirable, impassible, or uninhabitable.
- Nuclear explosions (those relying on nuclear fission or fusion for their energy) do not count.
- Intended nuclear devices that malfunction do not count, even if they have the same effect as a dirty bomb.
- This question resolves NO in four years if no dirty bomb detonates anywhere in the world.
- This question resolves YES based on the report of a newspaper AND a reputable scientific organization.
- I do not expect that to be a subjective criterion, but if it appears that subjective resolution is required I will sell any shares at current market value a full day before resolving this market.
Open markten
Middle EastPOLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 23,1 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 312,6K
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-19.5pt49%
+2 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+6.1pt59.2%
- Benjamin Netanyahu-3.0pt27.6%
- Naftali Bennett-1.0pt7.1%
POLYMARKETIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
- September 30+0.3pt100%
- May 8-1.4pt0%
- May 31-1.2pt0%
+16 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- No+0.3pt98%
- Yes-0.3pt2%
- Totaal volume
- € 6,9 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 153,3K
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Netanyahu out by which date?
- Crude Oil all time high by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Radiological "dirty bomb" attack anywhere in the world by 2029-06-30?
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 88% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Radiological "dirty bomb" attack anywhere in the world by 2029-06-30 afgewikkeld?
- Radiological "dirty bomb" attack anywhere in the world by 2029-06-30 wordt naar verwachting op 22 juni 2029 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Radiological "dirty bomb" attack anywhere in the world by 2029-06-30 afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: A "dirty bomb" is a dispersal mechanism like a conventional explosive attached to a radioactive material, intended to render an affected area undesirable, impassible, or uninhabitable.