Pierre Polievre out as Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada by end of year
PolitiekOne-OffVerkiezing2mndManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 90.1%
Voorspellers
20
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binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 1 uur geleden
Vertraagd18 jan 26, 20:26 UTC31 dec 26, 23:59 UTC
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Manifold MarketsRegels
Resolution criteria
- The market resolves YES if Pierre Poilievre is no longer the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada by December 31, 2026.
- This includes removal via the mandatory leadership review scheduled for late January 2026 in Calgary, or any subsequent leadership change during the year.
- The Conservative Party has adopted the Reform Act, which allows the leader to be removed by a vote of the majority of caucus, in addition to the party membership review process.
- The market resolves NO if Poilievre remains leader through the end of 2026.
- Poilievre has served as leader of the Conservative Party and leader of the Official Opposition since 2022.
