New sovereign nuclear state by EOY2027?
Midden-OostenOne-OffGeopolitiekPolitiekRusland / OekraïneChina1jManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdWaarschuwing datakwaliteitBrongegevens verslechterd
Gegevens van 25 okt 2026, 21:52 UTC · beleid pm-quality-4
Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 83%
Voorspellers
10
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 6 uur geleden
Verouderd11 jun 25, 01:33 UTC31 dec 27, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
What sovereign state will the West Bank first be part of?
Manifold MarketsWill California be an independent nation-state by EOY 2035?
Manifold MarketsTrump or Netanyahu receive official award from Iranian state by EOY 2030
Manifold MarketsWhat sovereign state will Gaza first be part of?
Manifold MarketsWill another country support Venezuela militarily?
Manifold MarketsWhich regimes will survive until 2028?
Manifold MarketsRegels
As of writing, there are nine sovereign nuclear states: USA, Russia, UK, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel.
- Will there be a tenth by 31 Dec 2027, 23:59:59 UTC?
- Resolves YES if any sovereign state other than the above nine possess nuclear weapons before the above date.
- Otherwise, resolves NO.
- Nuclear weapons sharing agreements do not count.
- The state must have credible and independent capacity to launch nuclear strikes on other (e.g. neighboring) states to count.
