Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingOther 29.8%-1.1ptKoploper van 17 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
24
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
+24.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 11 minuten geleden
3 okt 26, 18:53 UTC9 okt 26, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
2026 Nobel Peace Prize winner
KalshiWill the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize be awarded (in whole or in part) to an organization?
Manifold Markets🕊️Which person or organization will win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]
Manifold MarketsTrump wins Nobel Peace Prize 2026?
Manifold MarketsNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
PolymarketBallon d'Or Winner 2026
PolymarketRegels
This is a mirror of the Kalshi Nobel Peace Prize market.
- It will follow their resolution.
- To be precise, it is not a perfect mirror, because Manifold's dependent MC markets have a different structure than the Kalshi market—the options here must sum to exactly 100% (whereas Kalshi could resolve multiple or none to 100%).
- Thus, I will take their resolution and translate it into the Manifold equivalent (e.g., Kalshi resolves multiple to 100% -> proportional resolution here).
- "Other" covers the other fringe options that Kalshi lists (but were trading near 0% so I didn't yet add them here).
- The special option "Kalshi resolves every option to 0%" covers the case where Kalshi resolves every option they list to 0% (it does not refer to "Kalshi resolves all options listed by this market to 0%—since there are some options covered by "Other").
