Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingDec 31 14%Koploper van 10 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
31
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
-1.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 10 uur geleden
Verouderd10 mrt 26, 01:01 UTC1 jan 27, 00:58 UTC
Trends
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Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Iran leadership change by which date?
PolymarketWill Syria hold legitimate national leadership elections before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan during the leadership of the person in power after Xi Jinping?
Manifold MarketsWas the Wagner Group’s rebellion in June 2023 a strategic ruse staged by Russian leadership?
Manifold MarketsUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketRegels
Each answer will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET).
- Otherwise, the answer will resolve to "No".
- Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
- An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Vergelijking van voorspellingsbronnen
- Ook beschikbaar op Futuur — Iran leadership change by...? · December 31 23%
- Ook beschikbaar op Polymarket — Iran leadership change by...? · June 30, 2027 29%
Open markten
Middle EastPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-6.0pt74%
- September 18-6.0pt69%
- September 11-10.0pt61%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 1 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 363,6K
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No+3.0pt79.2%
- Yes-3.0pt20.8%
- Totaal volume
- € 9,3 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 245,6K
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+2.8pt57.6%
- Benjamin Netanyahu+1.0pt28.3%
- Naftali Bennett-1.0pt7.1%
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.3pt49.6%
- October 31-1.0pt29.1%
- September 30-1.0pt12%
+17 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- Israel closes its airspace by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Crude Oil all time high by which date?
- Al Nassr vs Abha
- Iran leadership change by which date?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Iran leadership change by which date??
- Manifold Markets prijst Dec 31 op 14% per 9 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Iran leadership change by which date? afgewikkeld?
- Iran leadership change by which date? wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2027 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Iran leadership change by which date? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Each answer will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET).
- Waar wordt Iran leadership change by which date? nog meer aangeboden?
- Dezelfde vraag wordt ook aangeboden op Futuur, Polymarket.