Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdWaarschuwing datakwaliteitBrongegevens verslechterd
Gegevens van 26 okt 2026, 03:30 UTC · beleid pm-quality-4
Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingDec 31 13%Koploper van 10 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
31
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
+1.1 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 2 uur geleden
Verouderd10 mrt 26, 01:01 UTC1 jan 27, 00:58 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Iran leadership change by which date?
PolymarketWill Syria hold legitimate national leadership elections before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
PolymarketStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
PolymarketRegels
Each answer will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET).
- Otherwise, the answer will resolve to "No".
- Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
- An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Vergelijking van voorspellingsbronnen
- Ook beschikbaar op Futuur — Iran leadership change by...? · December 31 20%
- Ook beschikbaar op Polymarket — Iran leadership change by...? · June 30, 2027 26%
