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6. Trump wins in 2024, opposition candidate wins in 2028 and assumes office 43.5%Koploper van 9 uitkomsten
6. Trump wins in 2024, opposition candidate wins in 2028 and assumes office 43.5%Voorspellers
126
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 40 minuten geleden
10 jun 24, 02:47 UTC31 jan 29, 07:59 UTC
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KalshiRegels
In the light of the events of Jan 6, there are some fears that if Trump wins in 2024, the next election cycle in the US will be influenced by him.
- In this market I'm trying to explore different possible scenarios.
- The answers for the question are designed to a) be mutually exclusive, and b) cover all possible scenarios.
- In case I've missed some possibilities, please let me know in the comments, and I'll add respective options (hence the "Other").
- In case there's any disagreement the first answer that matches the events wins.
- Clarification regarding what counts as "opposition": If the election happens, Trump is still active, but doesn't endorse any candidate, then I'll count him as implicitly endorsing the republican candidate, UNLESS he completely breaks any ties with GOP in which case I will count GOP candidate as opposition.
