Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor If there is a second election in Israel, will the Arab parties do better or worse??

Manifold Markets prijst Government forms without a second election op 56.3% per 1 november 2026.

If there is a second election in Israel, will the Arab parties do better or worse?

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Government forms without a second election 56.3%

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29 okt 26, 13:43 UTC31 dec 26, 23:59 UTC

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The recent Knesset election in Israel resulted in no coalition achieving a majority of seats.

Will a government manage to form or will there be a second election? If there is another election, will the Arab parties manage to repeat their impressive performance in the first election?
If a Prime Minister is sworn in, this market resolves to "the named outcome" even if that government only lasts a very short amount of time and another election ends up happening.
I think the current figure of 19 seats for the Arab parties is still provisional as a few votes are still to be counted.
In the unlikely event this changes, this market resolves according to the "19 or more/fewer than 19 seats" criteria, not the actual number of seats.
By "Arab parties" I mean Joint List and United Arab List (Ra'am).