If the Supreme Court revisits Obergefell by 2029, who will vote against a constitutional right to same-sex marriage?
One-OffAmerikaanse politiekPolitiekVerkiezing2j
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensGoed gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingClarence Thomas 97.9%Koploper van 9 uitkomsten
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20
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multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Verouderd1 apr 25, 03:38 UTC31 dec 28, 23:59 UTC
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Resolves YES for any justice who votes against a constitutional right to same-sex marriage, and NO for any justice who votes for a constitutional right to same-sex marriage.
- Resolves N/A for any justice not on the Court during the case, or who recuses themselves.
- Applies only to the first case revisiting the constitutional right to same-sex marriage by the end of the current presidential term (January 20, 2029), and resolves N/A if no such case occurs.
- Justices' opinions on other related questions, such as whether the reasoning of Obergefell was correct, whether Congress has the right to legislate on same-sex marriage, whether private citizens can discriminate against same-sex couples, etc. are irrelevant.
- This resolves only based on how justices vote on the question of whether there is a constitutional right to same-sex marriage.
- CLARIFICATION, August 11, 2025: If a justice votes to preserve the precedent that there is a constitutional right to same-sex marriage, they resolve NO, even if it is only because of stare decisis.
