If Talarico or Crockett wins the 2026 US Senate election in Texas, will governor Abbott refuse to certify that they won?
PolitiekOne-OffUS PoliticsVerkiezingCrime & Justice3mndManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 83.1%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Verouderd29 jan 26, 18:18 UTC31 dec 26, 23:59 UTC
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This market resolves YES if Governor Greg Abbott refuses to certify or sign the Certificate of Election for a U.S. Senate winner in the 2026 general election (November 3, 2026), provided that either James Talarico or Jasmine Crockett wins the Democratic primary and subsequently wins the general election.
- The market resolves NO if Abbott certifies and signs the Certificate of Election for the winner within the statutory timeframe (by approximately day 33 post-election per Texas Election Code § 67.010).
- For resolution purposes, "refusal to certify" includes: (1) explicitly refusing to sign the official canvass declaration or Certificate of Election; (2) indefinitely delaying the signing beyond the statutory deadline without legal justification;(3) withholding the Certificate despite a court order to sign it; or (4) certifying and signing a Certificate of Election declaring that the losing candidate won the election.
- The market resolves N/A if neither Talarico nor Crockett wins the Democratic primary, or if neither Democratic nominee wins the general election.
- The Democrat will be counted as having won if they lead the vote after the initial count by a sufficiently large margin that wouldn't be changed in a fair recount, even if there are accusations of irregularities by the state government.
- If the margin is less than 0.5% and a fair recount changes the outcome from D to R, the market will N/A.
