If Republicans lose the 2028 presidential election, will they attempt a coup? [Broad definition]
PolitiekOne-OffUS PoliticsVerkiezingGeopolitiek2jManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 56%
Voorspellers
46
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 15 uur geleden
Verouderd31 dec 24, 13:07 UTC21 jan 29, 22:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will there be a coup attempt against Donald Trump during his second term?
Manifold MarketsConditional on Iranian Regime Change: will it be achieved by a military coup?
Manifold MarketsHow many House Republicans will lose their primary in 2026?
KalshiWill Republicans lose the House majority before the midterms?
KalshiWill Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any state Trump won in 2024?
PolymarketWill Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?
PolymarketRegels
High-ranking Republicans with plausible knowledge by the candidate
- Militias like the Proud Boys count
- MAGA-aligned independent would count
- Needs to have had a significant (>=10%) chance of success, according to traders' opinions
- Aborted plan or random document doesn't count
- Plan needs to be executed, or disrupted by law enforcement
Open markten
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 605,7 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 697,7K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 603,2 mln.
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 183,4 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 471,3K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 extra uitkomsten
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor If Republicans lose the 2028 presidential election, will they attempt a coup? [Broad definition]?
- Manifold Markets prijst Yes op 56% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt If Republicans lose the 2028 presidential election, will they attempt a coup? [Broad definition] afgewikkeld?
- If Republicans lose the 2028 presidential election, will they attempt a coup? [Broad definition] wordt naar verwachting op 21 januari 2029 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt If Republicans lose the 2028 presidential election, will they attempt a coup? [Broad definition] afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: High-ranking Republicans with plausible knowledge by the candidate