If Manifold changes loans to stop using cost basis, will this change retroactively affect earlier bets?
One-OffExchanges3jManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 64.9%
Voorspellers
16
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 1 uur geleden
Vertraagd3 feb 23, 03:15 UTC1 jan 30, 08:00 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will any country stop using paper currency by end 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill Coca Cola Stop using AI to generate their Christmas Commercial before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Polymarket stop using the UMA protocol by the end of 2026?
FutuurWill Manifold create a system facilitating (and enforcing) player to player loans by EOY 2030
Manifold MarketsBTC price on Oct 25, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiBTC price on Oct 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiRegels
See here for the context.
- I'd be in favor of changing the loan system for future bets, but many of my past betting descisions on long term markets were predicated on the assumption that loans for those bets would pay out based on cost basis.
- If Manifold makes loans for those bets start paying out based on current value, I will be extremely annoyed at the loss of ~M$50,000.
