Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingOther 53.5%Koploper van 4 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
17
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 4 uur geleden
Verouderd5 okt 25, 18:48 UTC11 jan 70, 18:36 UTC
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Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
How will Taylor Swift & Travis Kelce's marriage end?
Manifold MarketsHow long will Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's marriage last?
Manifold MarketsWho will attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's wedding?
PolymarketTaylor Swift and Travis Kelce still together on December 31, 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Travis Kelce announce his retirement before next season?
KalshiWill Travis Kelce retire before next season?
PolymarketRegels
Resolves "the named outcome" if, while still married, it appears that Taylor & Travis will be immortal (e.g. life expectancy increasing at a rate of more than one year per year, sustained for an extended period of time) and they credibly commit to never breaking up (e.g. by self-modification).
- Resolves "the named outcome" if the marriage breaks up and there is any hint of acrimony.
- (I will be fairly generous in what qualifies for this, since the public view will be heavily filtered.
- If there aren't public indications that they're still friendly, it's probably gone down in flames.
- As a point of reference, the Joe Alwyn breakup would qualify as going down in flames.)
- Resolves "the named outcome" upon credible reporting that they have split before getting married (regardless of whether they later get back together).
Open markten
EntertainmentPOLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- 950 - 960m+18.0pt69.6%
- 940 - 950m-16.5pt26.5%
- 970m++1.1pt2%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 319,8K
- 24u volume
- € 98K
KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Jack Lowden+25.0pt67%
- Callum Turner-3.0pt21%
- Jack Barton-8.0pt20%
+27 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 1,8 mln.
POLYMARKETNext James Bond actor?
- Jack Lowden+23.4pt48%
- No Bond chosen-6.3pt17%
- Jack Barton-3.5pt9%
+21 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIPractical Magic 2 · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45-55.0pt18%
- Above 50-59.0pt4%
- Above 55-54.0pt2%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 80K
KALSHIPrimetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 4599%
- Above 5099%
- Above 5599%
+10 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 130,6K
- 24u volume
- € 45,3K
KALSHIBig Brother Season 28 · Winner
- Yash Patel+4.0pt27.7%
- Barrett Pfeiffer17%
- Drew Campbell+1.0pt13.4%
+14 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 4 mln.
- # of views of MrBeast video on day 3?
- Oscar Winner: Best Picture
- Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
- Grand Theft Auto VI: Release date
- # of views of next MrBeast video on week 1?
- Oscar nominees: Best Picture
- Runner · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Taylor Swift: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Comedy Series
- Bad Bunny: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor How will Taylor Swift & Travis Kelce's marriage end? (alternate)?
- Manifold Markets prijst Other op 54% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt How will Taylor Swift & Travis Kelce's marriage end? (alternate) afgewikkeld?
- How will Taylor Swift & Travis Kelce's marriage end? (alternate) wordt naar verwachting op 11 januari 2070 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt How will Taylor Swift & Travis Kelce's marriage end? (alternate) afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolves "the named outcome" if, while still married, it appears that Taylor & Travis will be immortal (e.g. life expectancy increasing at a rate of more than one year per year, sustained for an extended period of time) and they credibly commit to never breaking up (e.g. by self-modification).