Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
>= 100 95%Koploper van 7 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
16
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 11 uur geleden
Verouderd2 jun 24, 20:04 UTC2 jul 27, 05:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
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Manifold MarketsHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
KalshiWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
KalshiHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
KalshiRegels
This is an attempt to gauge whether Arizona will become uninhabitable due to climate change within the next decade, as predicted by this tweet:
- [tweet]Resolution will be based on my best estimate from credible reporting, Wikipedia articles, etc. If multiple credible sources are available, I'll resolve based on the geometric mean of available numbers.
- I'll add more answers if trading prices indicate that's appropriate.
- Ditto creating more comparable questions for different dates.
- See also: @/EvanDaniel/how-many-people-will-die-of-extreme
Open markten
WeatherKALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above+68.0pt95.2%
- 88° to 89°-22.0pt1%
- 84° to 85°-8.0pt1%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 586,2K
- 24u volume
- € 568,4K
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- New Orleans+48.0pt99%
- Houston+70.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+17.0pt99%
+19 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+53.0pt95.2%
- 79° or below-3.0pt1%
- 82° to 83°-44.0pt1%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIHighest temperature in Austin on Sep 8, 2026?
- 102° to 103°+55.0pt95.2%
- 100° to 101°-47.0pt1%
- 98° to 99°-9.0pt1%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIHighest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- 92° to 93°+47.0pt95.2%
- 90° to 91°-34.0pt1%
- 88° to 89°-6.0pt1%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
FORECASTEXWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 85 F on September 8, 2026?
- Yes86%
- No14%
- Totaal volume
- € 108,2K
- 24u volume
- € 108,2K
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 86 F on September 8, 2026?
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- Highest temperature in San Francisco on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Phoenix on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Houston on Sep 8, 2026?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor How many people will die of extreme heat in Arizona in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prijst >= 100 op 95% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt How many people will die of extreme heat in Arizona in 2026? afgewikkeld?
- How many people will die of extreme heat in Arizona in 2026? wordt naar verwachting op 2 juli 2027 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt How many people will die of extreme heat in Arizona in 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: This is an attempt to gauge whether Arizona will become uninhabitable due to climate change within the next decade, as predicted by this tweet: