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16
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 11 uur geleden
Verouderd2 jun 24, 20:04 UTC2 jul 27, 05:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
How many people will die of extreme heat in Arizona in 2033?
Manifold MarketsWill at least 12% of the population of Phoenix, Arizona die of extreme heat in the 2030s ?
Manifold MarketsWill 2,500+ people die of heat in Texas in a single week before 2032?
Manifold MarketsWill 10,000+ people die of heat in Texas in a single week before 2032?
Manifold MarketsWhere will it rain on Oct 26, 2026?
KalshiHighest temperature in Miami on Oct 26, 2026?
KalshiRegels
This is an attempt to gauge whether Arizona will become uninhabitable due to climate change within the next decade, as predicted by this tweet:
- [tweet]Resolution will be based on my best estimate from credible reporting, Wikipedia articles, etc. If multiple credible sources are available, I'll resolve based on the geometric mean of available numbers.
- I'll add more answers if trading prices indicate that's appropriate.
- Ditto creating more comparable questions for different dates.
- See also: @/EvanDaniel/how-many-people-will-die-of-extreme