Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling< 1 year (includes 0 time) 90.3%Koploper van 6 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
14
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 12 uur geleden
Verouderd28 jun 23, 01:24 UTC1 jan 27, 02:59 UTC
Trends
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Sourcery with Molly O'Shea: Will Donald Trump go on?
KalshiWill Trump go a full week without speaking live on camera before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Pavel Durov (Telegram’s CEO) go to jail?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk ever go to jail after being convicted of a crime?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump go on SNL during his second term?
KalshiPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketRegels
Based on time sentenced.
- Resolves on initial sentencing announcement (all counts combined), without waiting for appeals.
- Resolves to < 1 year if not sentenced by the end of 2026.
- Resolves to the lowest valid bracket.
- So a sentence of 9 years would resolve to < 10.
- A sentence of home detention without actual jail time would fall under the [< 1 year] option.
Open markten
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 605,6 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 691,8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.3pt1%
+16 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt73.3%
- New People (NL)-2.7pt22.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 603,1 mln.
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16.2%
- Jon Ossoff-2.0pt16.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 183,6 mln.
KALSHINew Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Chris Pappas+1.3pt100%
- Karishma Manzur-1.8pt0%
- Jared Sullivan-0.2pt0%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- Next French Presidential Election
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- NJ-07 House winner?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor How Long Will Trump Go To Jail??
- Manifold Markets prijst < 1 year (includes 0 time) op 90% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt How Long Will Trump Go To Jail? afgewikkeld?
- How Long Will Trump Go To Jail? wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2027 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt How Long Will Trump Go To Jail? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Based on time sentenced.