GOP wins in how many of the six "Rabois" Senate races?
30.7 ptn (24u)PolitiekOne-OffAmerikaanse politiekVerkiezing16u
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensGoed gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingAt least one 80.7%+30.7ptKoploper van 6 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
4
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
+30.7 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 8 uur geleden
Verouderd2 nov 26, 14:47 UTC4 nov 26, 00:00 UTC
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Manifold MarketsRegels
Keith Rabois offers to bet Nate Silver that the GOP wins the named outcome of six Senate races: Texas, Alaska, Kansas, Iowa, Ohio (special), Michigan.
- This market counts how many of those six the Republican candidate actually wins.
- [tweet]Each answer resolves independently: "At least N" resolves YES if the GOP wins N or more of the six, NO otherwise.
- Winners per the AP call / certified result.
- A race that goes to a runoff or recount resolves on its final outcome; the market stays open to resolution until all six are decided.
- Pic for posterity:
