Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 85%
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16
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Voorspelling
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Bijgewerkt 21 uur geleden
Verouderd19 jun 26, 15:31 UTC19 jun 27, 23:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will China have a commercial, domestically-built EUV machine by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill China have a commercial, domestically-built EUV machine by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill China obtain an EUV machine?
KalshiWhat percentage (%) of ASML's sales in 2026 will be from China?
Manifold MarketsWill the US cut ASML off Cymer before 2030?
Manifold MarketsNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketRegels
Was/is there an ASML EUV in China on June 19th, 2026?
- Context: "U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has told senior ASML executives he’s concerned that one of the Dutch chipmaker’s extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines may have ended up in China.
- That would be a major breach of export controls that have barred ASML from selling EUV to China since the first Trump administration. [ASML] says no such machine exists in China and has never existed there." -- https://techcrunch.com/2026/06/19/the-us-says-asmls-top-chip-tool-may-be-in-china-asml-says-it-isnt/
- This will resolve yes/no depending on whether there is fairly conclusive (>90%) public reporting indicating that there was or was not an ASML EUV machine in China on June 19th, 2026.
- If there is not conclusive reporting either way, the market will not resolve.
- For it to resolve "Yes", it must be possible for the machine to be fully functioning within one year (eg, a permanently broken EUV machine would not qualify).