What stories/media will have a counterfactually positive impact on me in the next month? (Read description)
TechOne-Off1dManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingsignalis 78.7%Koploper van 34 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
7
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 1 uur geleden
Vertraagd10 aug 26, 16:38 UTC10 sep 26, 16:38 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
How many hours will I study in September? (10 mana bonus, read description)
Manifold MarketsS&P 500 closing price end of September? (20 mana bonus, read description)
Manifold MarketsWill Trump win Nobel Piss Prize 2026? [Read description]
Manifold MarketsBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
PolymarketIn 2040, who will Manifold vote as having had the most positive impact on the development of AI in the 21st century?
Manifold MarketsRegels
Resolves to my subjective probability of it providing net benefit to my overall goals in expectation in the counterfactual to [the counterfactual where i don't experience it] where the answer is watched at a random time during times where i would have counterfactually have chosen to experience similar media after resolution time with a uniform distribution between Aug 10 and Sep 8 inclusive.
- The duration is important here, since the counterfactual would fill up the time with other stories of the same duration.
- I estimate sum of (probabilities × time spent) = 50-150 hours (total amount of time i will likely spend on these).
- The similar clause is because different times call for different stories.
- Resolution will occur at the resolution date.
- I will N/A all answers that I do not experience before the resolution date.
Open markten
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 1,3 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 1,3 mln.
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 2pm EDT?
- $78,400 or above99%
- $78,300 or above99%
- $78,200 or above99%
+97 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 1,1 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 802,6K
KALSHIBTC 15 min · $78,547.84 target
- Yes60%
- No40%
- Totaal volume
- € 736,5K
- 24u volume
- € 585,6K
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.4%
- 200-219+8.0pt22.9%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.1%
+23 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+9.0pt37%
- 90° or above+11.0pt28%
- 86° to 87°-12.0pt25%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- Where will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Elon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Nasdaq-100 price on Sep 8, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- ETH price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- ETH price on Sep 8, 2026 at 2pm EDT?
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor What stories/media will have a counterfactually positive impact on me in the next month? (Read description)?
- Manifold Markets prijst signalis op 79% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt What stories/media will have a counterfactually positive impact on me in the next month? (Read description) afgewikkeld?
- What stories/media will have a counterfactually positive impact on me in the next month? (Read description) wordt naar verwachting op 10 september 2026 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt What stories/media will have a counterfactually positive impact on me in the next month? (Read description) afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolves to my subjective probability of it providing net benefit to my overall goals in expectation in the counterfactual to [the counterfactual where i don't experience it] where the answer is watched at a random time during times where i would have counterfactually have chosen to experience similar media after resolution time with a uniform distribution between Aug 10 and Sep 8 inclusive.