Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
Nee 88%
Voorspellers
19
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 1 uur geleden
Vertraagd5 jan 24, 20:45 UTC1 jan 41, 05:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Isaac King's "Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?" market resolve?
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KalshiWhen will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
KalshiWhich countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
KalshiRegels
This market resolves once we have a definitive answer to this question.
- (i.e. "I've looked at all notable evidence presented by both sides and have upwards of 98% confidence that a certain conclusion is correct, and it doesn't seem likely that any further relevant evidence will be forthcoming any time soon.")
- This will likely not occur until many years after HIV is no longer a subject of active political contention, motivations for various actors to distort or hide inconvenient evidence have died down, and a scientific consensus has emerged on the subject.
- I will be conferring with the community extensively before resolving this market, to ensure I haven't missed anything and aren't being overconfident in one direction or another.
- (For comparison, the level of evidence in favor of anthropogenic climate change would be sufficient, despite the existence of a few doubts here and there.)
- If we never reach a point where I can safely be that confident either way, it'll remain open indefinitely.
Open markten
Sports
POLYMARKETUS Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen
- Michelsen Total Sets: O/U 3.5+34.5pt100%
- Michelsen Set 3 Winner+45.5pt100%
- Michelsen Total Sets: O/U 4.5+70.5pt100%
+25 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 6 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 5,9 mln.
POLYMARKETUEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
- Barcelona17.9%
- Arsenal15.1%
- Bayern Munich13.2%
+33 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 24,5 mln.
KALSHIHouston vs Philadelphia
- Houston+48.0pt91.1%
- Philadelphia-48.0pt8.9%
- Totaal volume
- € 2,4 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 2,3 mln.
KALSHIUS Open Men's Singles Winner
- Carlos Alcaraz+1.0pt58%
- Alexander Zverev+4.0pt26%
- Ben Shelton+2.0pt9%
+45 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 24,6 mln.
KALSHIBrace vs Sorribes Tormo
- Cadence Brace52%
- Sara Sorribes Tormo48%
- Totaal volume
- € 1,9 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 1,7 mln.
KALSHIShelton vs Alcaraz
- Carlos Alcaraz-1.0pt77.2%
- Ben Shelton+1.0pt22.8%
- Totaal volume
- € 1,8 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 1,6 mln.
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Did HIV come from a laboratory??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 88% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Did HIV come from a laboratory? afgewikkeld?
- Did HIV come from a laboratory? wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2041 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Did HIV come from a laboratory? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: This market resolves once we have a definitive answer to this question.