Conditional on their 2024 nominee, will the Democratic candidate for president win in 2028?
PolitiekOne-OffVerkiezing2j
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingKamala Harris 59.1%
Voorspellers
18
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 7 uur geleden
Verouderd11 jul 24, 22:29 UTC7 nov 28, 05:59 UTC
Trends
59.1%
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KalshiRegels
Each choice should be read as "if X is the 2024 nominee, the Democratic party's chances of winning the 2028 presidential election are Y%", where X is the choice text and Y is the choice probability.
- Conditional will be set by whoever comes out of the 2024 Democratic convention (nominally ending August 22) as the official nominee of that party.
- At that point I will N/A all other options and the nominee's option will remain open until market closes right before the 2028 election.
- Should the party's nominee change after the convention for any reason, that does not change the conditional (aka it is based on who they officially nominate, not who ends up running by the time November rolls around).
- I will not resolve the conditional based on any early virtual roll call or whatnot.
- Conditional resolves after the actual convention regardless of what happens beforehand.